Event Tree Analysis of Xinda Oil Pipeline Leakage Based on Fuzzy Set Theory
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract: Event tree is a logical analysis of probability for outcome events by initiating event and probable subsequent events. However, the evaluation of every single event may contain vague information or cannot be described by a crisp number of probabilities in application. So this paper aims to develop an event tree by using fuzzy set theory with a combination of triangle membership function and trapezoidal membership function to quantify the vagueness of information and calculate the outcome probability. Through the analysis of an oil pipeline leakage accident, the method provided is fully used and the expansion of accident can be tracked through different paths of event tree.
منابع مشابه
Fuzzy consequence modelling of hydrocarbon offshore pipeline
The traditional event tree analysis uses a single probability to represent each top event. However, it is unrealistic to evaluate the occurrence of each event by using a crisp value without considering the inherent uncertainty and imprecision a state has. The fuzzy set theory is universally applied to deal with this kind of phenomena. The main purpose of this study is to construct an easy metho...
متن کاملApplication of Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis on Oil and Gas Offshore Pipelines
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) method is used to identify basic causes leading to an undesired event, to represent logical relation of these basic causes in leading to the event, and finally to calculate the probability of occurrence of this event. To conduct a quantitative FTA, one needs a fault tree along with failure data of the Basic Events (BEs). Someti...
متن کاملOvercoming the uncertainty in a research reactor LOCA in level-1 PSA; Fuzzy based fault-tree/event-tree analysis
Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) which plays a crucial role in risk evaluation is a quantitative approach intended to demonstrate how a nuclear reactor meets the safety margins as part of the licensing process. Despite PSA merits, some shortcomings associated with the final results exist. Conventional PSA uses crisp values to represent the failure probabilities of basic events. This causes...
متن کاملارزیابی ریسک خطوط لوله انتقال نفت و گاز بر مبنای روش Bow-tie فازی شده
Introduction: Nowadays, gas and oil account for 60 percent of world energy resources. Transporting crude oil and its products are accomplished through a number of ways among which pipelines are of the utmost significance. Considering the extent of pipelines in installation and residential areas and also high potential for damage, the safety of these pipes and application of risk management prin...
متن کاملStudy on Pipeline Leaking Detection and Location Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set Theory
Original scientific paper From the view of time sequence, a petroleum pipeline leak detection and location method is proposed based on intuitionistic fuzzy set theory. The method uses wavelet decomposition and semi-hard-and-soft thresholding method to remove the noise of signal. Secondly, selecting fixed-length normal dynamic pressure wave signal sequences as the template sequence, and the same...
متن کامل